Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 3.324574 3.887722 4.511755 5.253781 6.111326 7.070506 8.224030
2025-11-23 2.386803 3.123066 4.028111 5.219041 6.741351 8.618294 11.104186
2025-11-30 1.911846 2.745175 3.860722 5.455095 7.666038 10.613153 14.827493
2025-12-07 1.522686 2.368296 3.585985 5.452997 8.226156 12.172160 18.186772
2025-12-14 1.239972 2.069537 3.343236 5.419739 8.693595 13.621984 21.556826
2025-12-21 1.038380 1.846700 3.161224 5.424886 9.187658 15.140564 25.197028
2025-12-28 0.958722 1.803206 3.247673 5.857080 10.398797 17.899822 31.108101
2026-01-04 0.843197 1.673077 3.162502 5.978113 11.096302 19.898190 36.011009
2026-01-11 0.749843 1.564421 3.093626 6.109326 11.816589 22.004989 41.335055
2026-01-18 0.659081 1.442958 2.979261 6.133684 12.336377 23.807533 46.318217
2026-01-25 0.572408 1.313140 2.826548 6.057059 12.646902 25.252753 50.798566
2026-02-01 0.478635 1.150474 2.581181 5.755204 12.469135 25.746965 53.518244
2026-02-08 0.412724 1.039447 2.430363 5.636634 12.666915 27.034468 58.033784
2026-02-15 0.361032 0.951747 2.316643 5.582334 12.996502 28.636520 63.406431
2026-02-22 0.336520 0.925035 2.335825 5.827779 14.010032 31.772365 72.341408
2026-03-01 0.299615 0.859557 2.253131 5.823367 14.460835 33.761863 79.060336
2026-03-08 0.265967 0.795721 2.163435 5.787202 14.831058 35.615246 85.694662
2026-03-15 0.238775 0.743928 2.095065 5.792417 15.298858 37.739486 93.182408
2026-03-22 0.234727 0.757338 2.198330 6.252342 16.944743 42.768573 107.946268
2026-03-29 0.216847 0.726279 2.177194 6.381114 17.772364 45.957164 118.713963
2026-04-05 0.201142 0.698659 2.160993 6.520733 18.646741 49.357340 130.371884
2026-04-12 0.183160 0.660056 2.107022 6.546648 19.222548 52.083678 140.668880
2026-04-19 0.163890 0.613057 2.020352 6.465107 19.494238 54.070723 149.322273